Or is it?

Where I work, it gives me a great opportunity to see two sides of the US economy - supply and consumer spending. 

First, I work at a hotel while I'm in school.  The amount of rooms sold this year down by about 30 - 35% which shows me that there is less discretionary spending being done by people.  Less vacations, less travelers, etc.  Also, there were less Branson bus tours this year than last year which also shows me that there is less money to be spent on the extras than last year.  The other indicator is the amount, or lack of, truck drivers on the road.  With Christmas season right around the corner, there is a noticeable decline in the number of trucks on the road.  Last year at this time, there was plenty of drivers trying to get as many runs in as possible because the loads were piling up behind them.  Not the case this year. 

By the way the Obama administration and like-minded economists talk about the new GDP numbers, the recession is over.  The stimulus package and government bailouts worked.  Or did they?  The Obama administration fudged the numbers on how many jobs were saved or created.  I still don't know how you can count whether a job is saved.  According to recovery.gov, Illinois has saved or created 288 jobs with the stimulus package.   Now that's some economic change we can believe in. 

The problem with the GDP numbers and the recovery.gov numbers is that they both fail to take into account that the government is horrible at creating economic prosperity and jobs.  The GDP numbers are propped up by Cash for Clunkers (at a cost of $24,000 to the tax payer per vehicle), home buyer rebates, etc.  What happens when this goes away?  The numbers aren't and won't be quite as rosy.  Couple this with the 4th quarter numbers due from Wall St. and the projected less than jolly Christmas season, the recession is far from being over.  In fact, there is a danger of a "double dip" recession.  It's definitely on the mind of those in DC as they are already kicking around the idea of a 2nd stimulus package. 

We have said it here time and again that cutting taxes on individuals and businesses is the best way to stimulate growth.  The administration can try to gloss over the real economy to make itself look good, but unemployment is hovering around 10% and states like Illinois are still bleeding jobs.  I'm afraid that we are falling into the same trap that we fell into in the 1930s.  All of this economic data also could mean nothing if Israel decides to bomb Iran's nuclear sites or if some other international crisis erupts elsewhere in the world.  The tide has not turned quite yet and we are still teetering on the edge of something worse. 

I'm not trying to be pessimistic here, just realistic.  Recovery means nothing if it doesn't create jobs.  Don't worry though, we can run to our government for help.  Sad that the 'invisible hand' of competition found in the free market has been replaced by the "visible hands" of Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Barney Frank, and the various czars found within the Executive Branch of the government.  Reminds me of Robert Walpole from the 1700s in England.  Read a bit about him and see if he reminds you of anyone in particular, maybe someone living in the White House?